In what is no more than an exercise in fun, I’ll be projecting the election results periodically based on current polls. To ensure as little media bias as possible, I will use few polls commissioned by newspapers or broadcast media. More weight will be given to polls of Likely Voters, than those of Registered Voters or Voting Age Adults.
States in which the averages of several polls do not fall outside the margin of error (MoE), will typically be considered tossups. Tossup states that feature a senate race where one candidate holds a convincing lead will be added to the presidential candidate of their party.
Three states President Trump flipped in 2016—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania—are polling consistently for Biden. Georgia, which Trump won by 5% in 2016, is currently within the margin of error. Biden need only keep the states Hillary Clinton won and flip a few electoral-rich states to Blue and he will win. President Trump has to keep every traditionally Red state as well as keeping enough states he flipped in 2016.
Since my last graph (not published here), I have moved Florida into the tossup basket. Polling is too close and there is no contested senate race to draw from. According to this week’s Electoral College projection, Biden is leading even without Florida, 290–170, enough to win.
